Domestic airline fares in the United States are at their highest level during the same period of the past decade, and in the short term, even if the prices of aviation kerosene fall, it will be difficult to adjust significantly. This trend has a direct impact on travellers scheduled to travel on holiday days at the end of the year, the population travelling on temporary business trips, and the tourism industry, which depends on air travel, where, according to several official and industry data, fares have increased in magnitude and duration over the same period in previous years.
Official data from the United States Department of Labor indicate that domestic air fare prices in the United States increased by 23 per cent in August this year, significantly above the average of the past five years. Monitoring data from the United States Bureau of Transportation further show that the average air fare price, excluding additional costs such as baggage charges and seating fees, rose from $405 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of the year to date and to $436 in the second quarter. With Thanksgiving and Christmas peaks approaching, ticket prices are increasing. According to the Hopper monitoring report on the travel booking platform, the average domestic airfare for Thanksgiving had reached $402 by mid-September and $452 during Christmas, 31 per cent and 23 per cent higher, respectively, compared to the same period last year, the highest rate in the past decade.
Central to the increase in ticket prices was the recent rapid increase in the price of aviation kerosene. Monitoring data from the Argus U.S. Aviation Oil Index indicate that on 10 September the average expected aviation price for the third quarter (July-September) was raised to $3.96 per gallon, after which it continued to rise to $4.53 per gallon on 17 September and remained above $4.25 per gallon until the end of the quarter, almost twice the average price for the whole year of 2025. An analysis by Deutsche Bank of fare pricing showed that the average daily fare of the cheap American airline Allegiant Air rose by 21 per cent a week to $280 during the week of 18 September; the average daily fare of United States aviation was $463, an increase of 6 per cent a week, with the most obvious cost escalation pressures on passengers travelling temporarily.
Many analysts and scholars have pointed out that airline prices are “ sticky” and that even if the prices of aviation kerosene fall in the future, it will be difficult to move them quickly. Stephen Treanor, a finance professor at Chico, California State University, who studies airline fuel risk, has made it clear that, in order to keep air fare prices down, air kerosene prices will not only fall, but also remain low, and if only short-term fluctuations fall, airlines will not immediately adjust their fares. The Colombian business school economist Brett House further explained that airlines currently faced not only a high cost of oil, but also a high volatility of costs, which led them to prefer to shift cost risks to consumers, for example, through fuel surcharges, which, once the fuel surcharges were raised, were extremely unlikely to be reduced. According to analysts, passengers who expect their ticket prices to fall may wait a considerable period of time, even longer than the related geo-conflict.
The current profitability of major United States airlines also supports the sustainability of high ticket prices. The second-quarter financial report, which was recently disclosed by Air Dame, showed that its adjusted earnings per share amounted to $1.56, which exceeded market expectations by $148 and total receipts of $17.67 billion, which exceeded expectations of $17.53 billion, with each share expected to remain at $6.5 to $7.5 per unit throughout the year. Of even greater concern is the fact that the quarterly operation of first-class and business-class aircraft in Dame amounted to $6.92 billion, exceeding for the first time $6.85 billion in the main class, indicating that the airline has been able to cover costs through the sale of high-end accommodation and has no incentive to attract ordinary passengers through reduced prices.
The impact of this round price increase on different groups of people varies markedly. The cost increases are most direct for ordinary tourists who plan to return home on holiday and travel at the end of the year: on the basis of the current average fare, the cost of a four-member home trip is close to $1,500 per ticket, excluding extra expenses such as baggage, seating and airport meals. For commercial travellers travelling on a temporary basis, the rapid increase in daily tickets has increased the cost of temporary travel by more than 20 per cent, and a number of enterprises have begun to adjust their travel policies to encourage employees to book or choose an alternative to videoconferencing in advance. For tour operators, the high fare has led to the cancellation or postponement of some travel plans, with small and medium-sized travel agencies having reduced their order volume by about 15 per cent compared to the same period last year, and many operators have begun to restructure their products and introduce short-distance around-the-border, local-travel products to the cost pressure on flight.
For passengers with a clear travel plan, the most prudent way to do so is to book tickets as early as possible. Hopper's monitoring data show that the average cost of booking Thanksgiving tickets two months in advance would have saved nearly $200 compared to purchases on approaching trips, and that the difference for Christmas tickets exceeded $300. If travel dates are flexible, the option is to stagger peak periods, such as the week before or the week after Thanksgiving, and the return fare can be reduced by 20 to 30 per cent. In addition, travellers need to carefully check the surcharges when purchasing tickets, and low-priced tickets for some low-cost flights do not include free baggage and seating privileges, and the total price may not be lower than the discount for full-service airlines. For passengers travelling on a temporary basis, attention can be paid to flights at small nearby airports, some of which are fared at approximately 15 per cent lower than large hubs, but require sufficient turnaround time.
Next, passengers will need to focus on the movement of the Argus U.S. aviation oil index, which, if stabilized below $3.5 per gallon and maintained for at least a month, would make it possible for airlines to gradually lower fuel surcharges, but this is considered to be a low probability by many analysts. In addition, attention needs to be paid to the fourth quarter financial and fare policy adjustments by major United States airlines, which, if the prices of oil continue to be high, may further reduce the availability of discount tickets and raise the additional cost standards and the travel costs of passengers may increase further. (approximately 2100 words in full)