Chipmaker Marvell Technology raised its long-term targets sharply at its New York investor day on October 6: fiscal 2028 revenue guidance lifted to about $20 billion from $18 billion guided in August, above the $18.2 billion Wall Street consensus (Reuters/LSEG). For the first time, it also set a fiscal 2031 target — $70 billion to $90 billion in revenue, with the $80 billion midpoint nearly double analysts' $46.85 billion estimate.
Marvell shares finished Tuesday up 5.8% at $287.01, Barron's reported. The AI-trade darling has climbed nearly 250% in 2026 and now trades at about 50 times projected earnings over the next 12 months. Rival Broadcom rose about 4% in sympathy, as the market read the outlook as validation for the whole custom-silicon category.
The core of Marvell's growth story is custom silicon: designing bespoke AI chips for hyperscalers like Google and Amazon, helping them reduce reliance on Nvidia's general-purpose chips. The company expects custom chip revenue of $12 billion in fiscal 2029, up from a prior $10 billion target; at the 2031 midpoint, the custom business would contribute $30 billion. Data center revenue alone could approach $18 billion in fiscal 2028. The bet was placed back in 2021, when Marvell centered its strategy on custom and cloud-optimized silicon — landing it squarely in the path of the AI infrastructure boom that followed.
A deal with Alphabet's Google disclosed in August is a key pillar: it could generate up to $120 billion in sales through fiscal 2033 if performance milestones are hit. Around the same time, Nvidia made a $2 billion strategic investment in Marvell. Management estimates its total addressable market could reach roughly $400 billion by 2030.
President and COO Chris Koopmans told Reuters: "It took a long time to get this company on this path and to be a technology leader. We have a track record of doing what we said we're going to do." He told Barron's that after a tough 2025, when the stock fell 23% despite strong financials, "last year we were undervalued" — investors are now starting to understand the business.
The ambition demands punishing arithmetic: to hit the $70 billion floor, revenue must compound at roughly 54% a year for five straight years; the $90 billion top end implies closer to 61%. Last fiscal year (FY2026) revenue was $8.2 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.84; the 2031 goal calls for adjusted EPS above $30 and a long-term gross margin of 56%–59%. The market has already voted with a 50x multiple — for the next five years, there is no room to stumble.