Samsung Electronics on Thursday projected a nearly nine-fold jump in third-quarter operating profit, estimating 107.4 trillion won ($80.17 billion) for the July–September period — slightly ahead of the LSEG SmartEstimate of 106.1 trillion won. Revenue was expected to rise 127% to 195 trillion won. Both figures are all-time highs: a fourth consecutive record quarter, and the first time a South Korean company has topped 100 trillion won in quarterly operating profit.
Reuters reports the engine is ravenous AI demand: tight supply of conventional DRAM and NAND, plus surging orders for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that powers AI data centers, has driven chip prices sharply higher.
Global AI infrastructure investment keeps outpacing memory supply growth, and the gap is widening rather than closing. Samsung and Micron both expect the imbalance to persist into 2028. Memory chips accounted for the bulk of Samsung's earnings improvement.
South Korean brokerage Shinhan Securities struck a bullish note last week: as next-generation HBM4 production ramps, Samsung is "all set for a rapid increase in market share," with "even stronger earnings" expected next year.
Beneath the glow, concerns are building. Analysts note the pace of memory price increases slowed in the third quarter, fanning questions about whether chip margins have peaked and how durable the AI spending boom really is.
Forecasts have been trimmed nearly 8% since the end of August, partly because a sharply stronger won shrinks the value of dollar-denominated overseas sales. Samsung shares rose just 0.3% on the guidance — more than 25% below their June record high.
Higher chip prices are pushing up the cost of smartphones and consumer electronics, weighing on end demand. Meanwhile, long-term supply deals between chipmakers and big customers have locked in supply while capping further price gains.
Samsung will release detailed results, including a divisional breakdown, on October 29. On the earnings call later this month, investors will also press for details of its shareholder return policy — after record profits, the question is whether dividends keep up.
"There were uncertainties surrounding Samsung's earnings as analysts cut their estimates, but the results turned out to be better than expected," said Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities. The open question now is sustainability: if AI capital spending cools, memory prices could fall as fast as they rose.
For ordinary consumers, the chip boom cuts both ways — cheaper AI compute on one side, pricier phones and laptops on the other. The brighter Samsung's earnings shine, the heavier the cost burden on device makers. The AI-lit chip feast that started in data centers is now being billed to every pocket.