A Quinnipiac University poll of Pennsylvania released October 7 shows incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro leading Republican challenger Stacy Garrity 59% to 34%, with Libertarian Ken Krawchuk at 2%. It is Quinnipiac's first survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania in the 2026 cycle, covering 1,159 respondents from October 1–5 with a margin of error of ±3.9 points.
The partisan details are grim for Garrity: 95% of Democrats support Shapiro; among Republicans, 79% back Garrity but 17% defect to Shapiro; independents favor Shapiro 62% to 23%.
On favorability, 55% of likely voters view Shapiro favorably versus 29% unfavorably; Garrity is at 22% favorable, 32% unfavorable, with 44% saying they haven't heard enough about her. Shapiro's job approval stands at 63%, with 30% disapproving. "One of the country's most popular governors gets a rousing endorsement from Pennsylvania's likely voters in a race that looks like a rout," said Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy.
Beyond the polling, the fundraising gap is staggering: Shapiro's campaign raised $13.3 million in the summer reporting period while Garrity brought in $1.8 million — less than one-seventh. The RealClearPolling average from September 15 to October 5 has Shapiro ahead by 23.2 points (56.0% to 32.8%).
The candidates' lone debate took place on the evening of October 7 at 8 p.m. at WHTM Studios in Harrisburg, with no live audience, televised on local stations statewide.
The survey also asked about Congress: Pennsylvania voters favor Democrats to win control of the U.S. House by 15 points. Other findings: Senator John Fetterman is unpopular with his own party, with 50% disapproving of his job performance; President Donald Trump faces a 60% disapproval rating in Pennsylvania (a state he won by 1.4 points in 2024); and more than 60% of respondents said AI data centers in Pennsylvania will do more harm than good.
Pennsylvania votes for governor on November 3. The question now isn't who wins, but by how much — and whether a blowout puts Shapiro's name on the 2028 presidential shortlist. Garrity, the state treasurer making her first run for governor, has struggled for months to close a gap that has rarely dipped below 20 points in any major survey.