Mexico's Pacific coast went into full alert on Saturday as Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and taking aim at the resort city of Puerto Vallarta.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its Saturday advisory that Simon's maximum sustained winds had reached 150 mph, with gusts up to 183 mph (295 kph). The storm's center was about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, crawling north at just 4 mph (6 kph). Forecasters expect landfall Sunday morning between La Huerta and Tomatlan in the state of Jalisco, with Simon's core tracking over or near Puerto Vallarta later in the day.
The projected landfall corridor sits squarely on one of Mexico's busiest stretches of coastline. Manzanillo is the country's largest port and its main gateway for trade with Asia; Puerto Vallarta is a beach destination home to nearly 300,000 residents. A hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo in Michoacan to Punta Mita in Nayarit, with a hurricane watch extending north to San Blas.
Mexico's National Meteorological Service forecasts waves of 6 to 8 meters (20 to 26 feet) along the Jalisco and Colima coasts. Tyler Roys, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, told Reuters that Simon "could deliver the most significant hurricane impact to this stretch of the Mexican Pacific coast since Lidia in 2023, which damaged thousands of homes and devastated crops along the Jalisco coast." Lidia downed trees, damaged roofs and triggered landslides in and around Puerto Vallarta in October 2023.
The wind arrives first, but the rain may prove deadlier. The NHC warned that Simon could dump 10 to 20 inches (25 to 50 cm) of rain across southwestern Mexico, with isolated totals reaching 30 inches (76 cm) in parts of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. "This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," the center said, urging residents to rush preparations to completion.
A dangerous storm surge is also expected along the immediate coast near and east of the landfall point, accompanied by large and destructive waves. Notably, Simon is unusually compact: hurricane-force winds extend only about 10 miles from its center, concentrating the worst winds in a narrow corridor — severe for communities inside it.
Puerto Vallarta was already battening down on Saturday morning. The Associated Press reported that convenience stores, hotels and other businesses were boarding up windows, with few people on the streets under overcast skies. Moises Villasenor, 72, said he was "a little worried" as he filled sandbags to protect his small hotel three blocks from the seafront, adding: "We're very positive."
The state of Jalisco suspended classes on Friday and Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and began evacuating dozens of people from at-risk areas. Tourism businesses were told to have workers and visitors sheltered or in safe zones by Friday afternoon. Puerto Vallarta has designated 16 shelters with space for 3,906 people; five opened Friday, and 261 people were moved to 13 shelters along the state's coast.
Starting at 4 p.m. Saturday, all nonessential activities and travel were suspended in Puerto Vallarta, with public transit and supermarkets shutting at the same time. The port closed to navigation Friday afternoon, and Volaris canceled all of its Sunday flights at Puerto Vallarta's airport. The Mexican Navy activated emergency response personnel in Colima and restricted maritime traffic along parts of the Pacific coast.
Simon is no outlier. This year's northeastern Pacific season is approaching the most active on record: Colorado State University data put the basin's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) at 304.0 through Friday afternoon, the second-highest ever, closing in on the 2018 record of 318.1. An average season generates an ACE of just 132.7. A strong El Nino has weakened wind shear, letting storms intensify more easily.
Simon is part of an unusual sequence: Hurricane Isaias just made landfall in Florida while Tropical Storm Rachel is set to bring rain to California. Last week, Hurricane Polo struck the Baja California Peninsula as a Category 2 storm, toppling trees and utility poles and flooding streets.
For Puerto Vallarta's residents, the immediate task is getting through Sunday. Civil protection officials urged everyone to stay indoors from Saturday afternoon and told people in flood- or landslide-prone areas to head to shelters. Once the storm passes, damage assessment and the recovery of the port and tourism economy come next.