Nine States Could Catch the Northern Lights Tuesday Night as a Coronal Hole Winds Down the Storm Cycle

Nine States Could Catch the Northern Lights Tuesday Night as a Coronal Hole Winds Down the Storm Cycle

A Quieter Kind of Aurora Night

After a weekend that hurled the aurora as far south as England's coast, the northern lights are still hanging over the northern United States on Tuesday, Oct. 13. NOAA forecasters are tracking geomagnetic activity near Kp 4 tonight, according to People and Yahoo Science, a level that can make the display livelier and easier to spot than on a quiet night — and, in NOAA's own wording for Kp 4, "quite pleasing to look at" from the right vantage point.

The Nine States on Tonight's Map

According to NOAA's latest aurora map, the viewing zone covers northern Washington, northern Idaho, most of Montana, all of North Dakota, northern South Dakota, parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Most of Alaska also has a strong shot. That is nine states along or near the Canadian border, plus Alaska — a far narrower footprint than the 22 states flagged during last week's storm watch.

What NOAA and SWPC Say: A Minor G1 Storm

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center's three-day forecast points to a stream of fast solar wind likely to trigger a minor G1 geomagnetic storm tonight, Oct. 13, with aurora potential lingering into Oct. 14 UTC, Starlust reports. Independent Kp tracking from AuroraForecast.ai puts the peak of this pulse around 06:00 UTC on Wednesday, Oct. 14, at Kp 5 — the top of the G1 range. The Kp index runs from 0 to 9, and each step represents a roughly fourfold jump in geomagnetic disturbance.

Why: A Coronal Hole Takes Over From the CMEs

The engine has changed. This week's aurora is being driven by a high-speed stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole — a cooler, darker-looking region in the Sun's outer atmosphere — rather than by a coronal mass ejection, People explains. That marks a handoff from the event that powered the weekend: an M1.4-class flare from Active Region 4549 on Oct. 6 launched a CME, and a second, "partial halo" CME appears to have overtaken and swallowed the first, a scenario forecasters call a cannibal CME.

The Weekend Peak: A G3 Storm That Beat Its Own Watch

Nature World News reports that the cannibal CME reached Earth at about 14:34 UTC on Saturday, Oct. 10, sharply enhancing the solar wind. NOAA recorded a maximum three-hour Kp index of 7 beginning at 17:58 UTC Saturday — a G3 (strong) storm on NOAA's G1-to-G5 scale, and stronger than the G2 watch the agency had posted for the eruption. Auroras lit up the UK and northern Europe, with geomagnetic activity reaching 600 nanoteslas, according to the Met Office.

Britain Saw It First, and May Again

The Guardian reports that the northern lights illuminated UK skies on Friday and Saturday evenings, with sky-gazers as far south as Devon, Hampshire and Kent treated to the display. The Met Office said sightings could continue during clear skies until Tuesday, noting that two glancing coronal mass ejections followed by a coronal hole high-speed stream bring a daily chance of enhancing the auroral oval between Oct. 10 and 13. Earlier in the week, NOAA's watch No. 285, issued at 16:36 UTC on Oct. 9, had forecast a G2 moderate storm for Oct. 11 with aurora possible as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state.

When and Where to Look Tonight

The best window runs from late evening into the early morning hours, with aurora often most active between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time. NOAA's experts recommend heading as far north as possible, finding a hill with a clear view of the northern sky, and getting away from city lights. USA Today cautions that the forecast never guarantees a sighting in any particular state: the storm's real strength, cloud cover and local light pollution all decide what actually reaches your eyes. Give yourself 20 to 30 minutes of dark adaptation, keep the phone screen off, and check NOAA's live aurora map before driving anywhere.

What Comes Next

This pulse winds down after mid-week, but the solar cycle is still climbing toward its maximum, and forecasters expect space weather events — and aurora chances over the UK and the northern U.S. — to keep getting more frequent in the years ahead. For now, Tuesday night is the one to watch: a G1-level echo of a stormy weekend, best caught from the northern tier under a clear, moon-washed-free sky.