Trudy strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane as it closed on Mexico's Pacific coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Thursday. At the 5 a.m. ET advisory the storm sat about 300 miles (480 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph), moving northwest at 9 mph (15 kph). A separate bulletin placed its center roughly 460 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo. Fox Weather called it the 22nd named storm of the eastern Pacific season.
The hurricane center expects Trudy to become a major hurricane — Category 3 or higher — on Friday and to pass very close to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. The forecast track keeps the center just offshore between western Michoacán and Cabo Corrientes. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach parts of the coast as early as Saturday.
"Trudy has the potential to quickly become a major hurricane and even reach Category 4 or 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Fox Weather put the ceiling at 140 mph; AccuWeather's outlook was Category 4 with roughly 130 mph winds. Either way, Trudy would become the ninth Category 4-or-stronger hurricane of the 2026 eastern and central Pacific season. AccuWeather rates it a 3 on its RealImpact scale for Mexico.
Through the weekend, 4 to 8 inches (101 to 203 millimeters) of rain is forecast across Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches (300 mm). Forecasters warned of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. Swells from Trudy were expected to reach parts of the coast within a day or so, bringing dangerous surf and rip currents.
Mexico's National Meteorological Service had expected Trudy to become a hurricane overnight into Thursday and possibly reach Category 4, according to the magazine Proceso and the newspaper La Voz de Michoacán. Acapulco's civil-protection meteorologists said rain could begin Wednesday and last through Friday. The navy said it was ready to deploy its Plan Marina disaster-relief operation in Guerrero and Michoacán, and the ports of Acapulco and nearby Puerto Marqués were closed to small boats and coastal fishing from 3 p.m. Tuesday.
The hurricane center's five-day probabilities give Manzanillo a 78 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph or more), Lázaro Cárdenas 72 percent and Zihuatanejo 58 percent. Hurricane-force winds (74 mph or more) are 21 percent likely at Manzanillo, 19 percent at Lázaro Cárdenas and 10 percent at Zihuatanejo. Acapulco, farther from the forecast track, sits at 12 percent.
The same coastline is still recovering from Hurricane Simon. The Associated Press reported Tuesday that flooding and landslides from Simon and the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel had killed at least six people, children among them; a 71-year-old died when a wall collapsed in Chilpancingo, the Guerrero state capital. Gov. Evelyn Salgado said Simon's rains toppled trees and utility poles, blocked roads and flooded homes in coastal communities including Acapulco. Earlier, classes were suspended in 22 Jalisco municipalities, 579 people were evacuated or sheltered across Jalisco, Colima and Nayarit, and nine ports — Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas among them — were shut.
Trudy is not an isolated event. Gizmodo reports that this El Niño is already the strongest on record as measured by sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region, and is not expected to peak until December. NASA's Earth Observatory counted 20 named storms and nine hurricanes in the region by Sept. 28, against a 1991–2020 average of 13.5 named storms and 7.4 hurricanes by that date; by Sept. 24, accumulated cyclone energy there was nearly twice normal.
Eastern Pacific accumulated cyclone energy passed the 2018 record on Oct. 11, CBS News reported, and the last five hurricanes — Nolo, Odalys, Polo, Rachel and Simon — all reached major strength, meaning winds of at least 111 mph. Polo spent two and a half days at Category 5, a record, peaking at 180 mph and 892 millibars — the second-most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record behind Patricia's 872 mb in 2015. Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach said Polo tied Super Typhoons Bavi and Sinlaku as the Northern Hemisphere's strongest storm this year. Trudy's forecast peak does not yet match that mark, but it would keep the region's extraordinary run going.
Track uncertainty comes from storm interaction. The hurricane center said Trudy and Simon, about 700 nautical miles apart, were expected to be within 500 miles of each other by Thursday night, "possibly close enough to influence each other's steering." The new Trudy track runs "well to the east" of the previous one through 72 hours, and confidence in its exact position is "not particularly high."
If Trudy strengthens as forecast, strong winds near its center will churn dangerously high seas, with large swells spreading outward. The hurricane center issues a full advisory every six hours. Travelers booked into the region from Thursday to Sunday should check flight status and keep plans flexible, while coastal residents should follow local civil-protection guidance.