Rubio Tells Addis Ababa to Hold the Line as Shelling Kills Civilians in Tigray

Rubio Tells Addis Ababa to Hold the Line as Shelling Kills Civilians in Tigray

A call from Washington, and a blunt warning

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke by phone with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Wednesday, pressing for dialogue under the peace deal the two neighbours signed in 2018 and saying the region could not tolerate more conflict. In a State Department statement, Rubio said "all countries in the Horn of Africa must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbours and avoid cross-border incursions" — the clearest public position Washington has taken on the Ethiopia-Eritrea standoff so far.

Rights monitors report civilians killed by shelling

Human Rights Watch says it has received reports of civilians killed and wounded by shelling in southern Tigray. Laetitia Bader, the group's deputy Africa director, told The Associated Press that the shelling also forced some health facilities to close. She called for independent monitoring, restored communications and safe humanitarian access, and did not say who was firing.

Ethiopia's letter to the Security Council

In a letter to the UN Security Council dated October 9, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos accused Eritrea of sending troops up to 60 kilometres inside Tigray in what Addis Ababa called an "all-out invasion," and invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter in claiming self-defence. He did not specify the measures Ethiopia would take, name the occupied areas or offer evidence; the AP could not independently verify the claim.

Asmara answers with a three-year accusation

Eritrea's information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, wrote on X that Ethiopia "has been pursuing, in effect, an unprovoked war of aggression against Eritrea for more than three years," and accused Addis Ababa of using the fighting to seize the Red Sea port of Assab. Briefing foreign diplomats in Asmara on October 15, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh said the other side had effectively declared open war.

Mekelle falls, then the drones head north

Tigrayan forces seized the airports at Mekelle, Axum and Shire on September 23, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights. Government-aligned fighters entered Mekelle on October 4 after the Tigray People's Liberation Front said it was pulling out, and markets reopened. The conflict monitor ACLED recorded a drone strike on a hotel in Adwa on October 4 that wounded between five and nine people, including security personnel, and further strikes on Eritrean troops and ammunition around Adigrat on October 7 and 8, which it attributes to the Ethiopian National Defense Force.

Eritrean troops pull back from a border town

Near the frontier, a three-wheeled taxi driver from Zalambessa told the AP that the last time he saw Eritrean soldiers was when they left late on Monday morning, heading for the border. There was no active fighting in Fatsi, about 20 kilometres (12 miles) from Zalambessa, and Ethiopian federal forces moved into the town later that day.

The sea, not the border, is the real quarrel

Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea became independent in 1993 and now depends on Djibouti's ports for almost all its trade; the landlocked country of more than 120 million people treats sea access as an economic and security necessity. Abiy has repeatedly said Ethiopia must secure a Red Sea outlet, which Asmara reads as a plan to take Assab by force. Eritrea's submission cites Ethiopian commanders: deputy army chief General Abebaw Tadesse said on September 27 that "our ultimate destination is Assab," and air force commander General Yilma Merdasa named Assab as the main goal on October 11. Ethiopian officials say they want fair sea access through peaceful diplomacy and mutual benefit.

Neighbours close ranks around the Red Sea

On October 4, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia issued a joint declaration in New Alamein stressing sovereignty and territorial integrity and asserting that "the governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of the littoral states." Somalia has separately floated conditional sea access for Ethiopia if the two countries reach a formal agreement. The African Union called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt on October 1 to exercise "maximum restraint" and avoid actions or statements that could further escalate tensions.

Hospitals take in 480 wounded as aid stalls

OCHA said on October 1 that drone activity and airstrikes were disrupting humanitarian operations, that hospitals in Korem and Alamata had received 480 casualties, and that relief work in Tigray was "nearing a standstill because of insecurity and severe access constraints." Tens of thousands have fled their homes in Afar, according to a preliminary government assessment. MSF says more than 300 war-wounded patients had reached Suhul Hospital in Shire by September 25. On October 8, four World Food Programme trucks carrying 90 metric tons of supplies to treat acute malnutrition reached Mekelle through the Semera-Abala corridor — the first aid convoy into Tigray since the fighting resumed. The UN released $8.5 million from its emergency fund on October 14, and the EU allocated €61 million.

What to watch next

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he is "gravely concerned" by the renewed fighting in Tigray, Afar and Amhara, demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities and urged the signatories of the Pretoria Agreement to return to dialogue under that framework, while noting his concern at reports of Eritrean forces inside Ethiopia. Two things now matter most: whether the Security Council acts on the competing letters both capitals sent it — the core fact in dispute, whether Eritrean troops are inside Tigray in force, remains unverified — and whether the border stays quiet. Analysts warn that the severing of diplomatic ties removed the last formal mechanism for crisis management, leaving limited but direct clashes at risk of rapid escalation into interstate war.