A Bush Breaks Party Lines for a Democrat in the Texas Senate Race

A Bush Breaks Party Lines for a Democrat in the Texas Senate Race

Neil Bush, the younger brother of former President George W. Bush, said he voted early for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico in Texas, breaking with the Republican nominee and sitting Texas attorney general Ken Paxton.

A lifelong Republican breaks his own rule

Bush, 71, is the son of former President George H. W. Bush and the younger brother of George W. Bush, and chairs his father's nonprofit Points of Light. In a Facebook post on Tuesday, Oct. 20, he wrote: "I have never posted a political message on Facebook, not wanting to offend friends whose views may be very different than mine. I'm breaking that tradition because I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate."

His objections to Paxton's record

Asked why, Bush pointed first to his conduct as attorney general, "particularly his decision to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election in other states in an effort to help Donald Trump remain in power." He called that effort "an affront to our democratic institutions and the peaceful transfer of power." Bush also noted that Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House and later acquitted by the Texas Senate.

Character over party affiliation

Bush stressed that his vote "was about much more" than opposition to Paxton. He said he was "enormously impressed" by how Talarico approaches complicated and controversial issues, saying the Austin Democrat "speaks with respect, seeks common ground, and seems genuinely interested in bringing people together rather than driving them apart." He added that Talarico's faith "appears to be a deeply rooted source of humility, compassion, and conviction rather than a political weapon," and wrote that "character matters more than party affiliation."

Two Bushes now back the Democrat

The BBC reports that two members of the Bush family have now backed Talarico. Barbara Bush, the daughter of the former president, donated $2,500 to Lone Star Rising PAC, according to Fox News citing Federal Election Commission filings; the PAC accounts for nearly all the outside spending supporting Talarico, per Houston Public Media. Breitbart noted she campaigned for Kamala Harris in 2024.

A race inside the margin of error

The contest is tight. A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll conducted Oct. 10–14 among 2,000 likely Texas voters, released Oct. 18, found Talarico ahead 48% to 46%, with 3% for Libertarian Ted Brown and 3% undecided, a margin of error of 2.19 percentage points. If he wins, Talarico, 37, would be the first Democrat elected to statewide office in Texas in 33 years. Paxton is 63.

Record early voting

Early voting ran Oct. 19–30 ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Harris County recorded 104,660 in-person ballots on the first day, surpassing its previous midterm first-day record of 63,188 set in 2018. Dallas County saw 76,069 voters on day one, nearly 20,000 more than the 56,341 who voted on the first day in 2024. More than 19 million Texans are registered to vote.

Money versus grassroots

CBS News reported that Elon Musk contributed more than $150 million to a Senate GOP organization assisting Paxton, while ABC News said the Republican side has spent more than $158 million against Talarico. Speaking in San Marcos, Talarico cast the race as a modern David-and-Goliath fight, arguing for grassroots strength without naming Musk.

The Republican split on Paxton

Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter Republican primary, with Trump publicly backing him. Trump on Oct. 16 said he had no regrets about the endorsement, arguing "Cornyn would have lost," and on Oct. 15 blamed Karl Rove and Cornyn for not doing enough to help Paxton, calling them "WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks." Cornyn has declined to endorse Paxton.

What happens before November 3

With less than two weeks to go, multiple polls show the Democrat ahead by single digits — unusual in statewide Texas races the GOP has dominated for three decades. Early voting has shattered local records, but one caution from The National Desk: finding a frontrunner so early is fruitless, since counties report tallies unevenly. The outcome will hinge on turnout composition and the closing weeks of the campaign.