Hamas's Blunt Warning: Israeli Assessments Say the Capabilities Remain

Hamas's Blunt Warning: Israeli Assessments Say the Capabilities Remain

A threat passed through a UN office

Senior Hamas officials met Ramiz Alakbarov, the UN humanitarian coordinator, at his office in Gaza last week and asked him to carry a warning to Israel: Hamas is ready to launch another attack in the mould of October 7, 2023, and will strike wherever an opening appears — inside Israel, in the West Bank and beyond. Israeli officials described the message as extraordinary in its bluntness and directness, and The Jerusalem Post's sister paper ynet, which broke the story Thursday, said it has intensified concern inside Israel's security establishment that Hamas is preparing for another confrontation rather than simply pressing for political concessions.

Israel's coordinator confirms the message

COGAT, the Israeli body in charge of Palestinian affairs, confirmed ynet's account to Handelsblatt and Rhein-Zeitung, which both carried the German wire service's write-up. Alakbarov met COGAT Maj. Gen. Yoram Halevy on Wednesday and relayed the message, after which COGAT urgently forwarded a document detailing the Hamas leadership's threats to Israel's political and security leadership. Both German reports noted that the account could not be independently verified.

Three grievances behind the threat

Israel National News, citing Israeli assessments, listed what the Hamas officials raised: continued Israeli military operations in Gaza, changes to the "yellow line" marking Israeli military positions, and Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas' cancellation of elections scheduled for November 28. The officials said Hamas was unwilling to accept the continuation of the current situation.

The cabinet brief: preparation has accelerated

Assessments presented recently to the security cabinet say Hamas has stepped up preparations for renewed fighting, accumulating weapons and personnel and moving military equipment into civilian areas. Israeli officials report that Hamas is transferring weapons out of underground tunnels into civilian facilities including hospitals and schools, and the military believes the group retains weapons depots, manufacturing workshops and tunnels in areas it does not control, having restored a substantial portion of its tunnel network there.

Rockets are the weak link

The rocket force is where the estimates diverge most sharply. ynet cites Israeli assessments that hundreds of rockets remain in Gaza, though many cannot reach distant targets, and that officials believe Hamas has almost no ability to rebuild the capability — making significant damage inside Israel from rocket fire "extremely limited, if it exists at all." Israel Hayom offers the fuller picture: three years after October 7, Hamas is believed to hold only a few hundred rockets against an arsenal numbering in the thousands before the war, and it is also short of small arms, some of which lie beyond its manufacturing capacity.

Fighters and payroll

The Times of Israel, citing Haaretz, reported that Israeli military officials presented US counterparts with intelligence saying Hamas has no intention of disarming and has rebuilt its ranks to an estimated 30,000-40,000 operatives, roughly its pre-October 7, 2023 numbers. World Israel News, citing a Channel 12 report, put armed manpower at between 25,000 and 30,000 fighters. Israel National News reported that Israeli officials estimate Hamas needs about NIS 90 million ($29 million) a month to pay roughly 30,000 personnel in Gaza, at average monthly salaries of about NIS 3,000 ($970) each.

The window between two elections

Israeli officials believe Hamas calculates that Israel's room for large-scale military operations is constrained by the October 27 Israeli election and the November 3 US midterms, and that this creates an opening to strengthen its position. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on October 6 that Hamas might use its remaining forces to influence the vote, saying Israel would thwart any such attempt and respond with "tremendous force."

Outside analysts doubt a large operation

Not every assessment backs the Israeli read. Political.org reported that Brian Carter, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, doubts Hamas has the logistical capacity to "conduct an attack out of the Gaza Strip right now," though a West Bank attack is more plausible. Israel Defense reached a similar conclusion, noting that Hamas' rocket stockpile is negligible while the small arms used on October 7 could be reused in a limited attack, possibly combined with UAVs and other supporting weapons.

The West Bank looks likelier

The West Bank therefore looks like the more realistic theatre. Al Jazeera reported that UN OCHA has recorded more than 200 Israeli attacks on Palestinian farmers since September 1, eclipsing the 185 documented across the entire 2025 harvest season. Israel Hayom reported in September that a 37-year-old Hamas operative carried out a solo shooting attack in the West Bank, the first such successful targeted killing in Area C in about a year, according to a senior security official.

Gaza front and elections feel the impact

Operationally, The Jerusalem Post reported that IDF combat engineers working with the Yahalom Unit sealed a tunnel route roughly 1.5 kilometres long that crossed the yellow line area, with rooms inside intended for Hamas use. Reuters, reviewing the Gaza plan a year on, noted that Israeli forces controlled 53 per cent of Gaza when the first phase was drawn and have since expanded effective control to around two-thirds, squeezing a population of 2 million into a shrinking coastal strip. The Jerusalem Post also reported that IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said the goal was to thwart every threat and enable elections to take place without external influence.