Vance Powers Up Off Mexico, Chasing a Record Seventh Straight Major Hurricane

Vance Powers Up Off Mexico, Chasing a Record Seventh Straight Major Hurricane

From Tropical Storm to Category 2 in Two Days

The Pacific hurricane season is refusing to wind down. Vance formed as a tropical storm on Wednesday south of Guerrero and needed only two days to become a hurricane on Friday, October 23, then quickly climbed to Category 2 the same day. In its Friday evening advisory, the U.S. National Hurricane Center put its maximum sustained winds at 105 mph (170 kph), with the center about 425 miles (685 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco, moving northwest at about 5 mph (8 kph).

Forecast: Category 3 Before Friday Is Out

The official U.S. forecast is blunt: rapid strengthening will continue, and Vance could become a major Category 3 hurricane before the end of Friday. That morning it was still a Category 1 storm with 85 mph (140 kph) winds, sitting about 440 miles (710 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco and tracking north-northwest near 6 mph (9 kph). Other Friday advisories clocked it at 90 mph (150 kph) roughly 455 miles (730 kilometers) from Acapulco, moving north-northwest at 5 mph (8 kph). The Spanish-language AP service reported a reading of 110 mph (177 kph) just 385 miles (620 kilometers) from Acapulco, knocking on the door of Category 3, though forecasters expect a gradual weakening to begin Saturday.

A Season for the Record Books

If Vance reaches Category 3, it would be the seventh consecutive major hurricane in the Pacific this year, following Nolo, Odalys, Polo, Rachel, Simon and Trudy. Seven back-to-back major hurricanes in a single Pacific season is the kind of streak that keeps forecasters, insurers and coastal officials awake at night, and Vance is arriving right on schedule to extend it.

Mexico Warns of Rains, Three-Meter Surf

Mexican authorities are focused less on the category number than on the water. The National Meteorological Service reported Friday afternoon that Vance sat 685 kilometers south-southwest of Acapulco and 895 kilometers south-southeast of Manzanillo, feeding heavy rains into Michoacan and Guerrero plus showers in Oaxaca, with waves up to three meters along the Guerrero coast. An earlier bulletin listed the storm at latitude 10.9 North, longitude 102.1 West, with 140 kph sustained winds gusting to 165 kph, a minimum central pressure of 982 hectopascals, and movement north-northwest at 9 kph. Rainfall of 25 to 50 millimeters is expected in Michoacan and coastal Guerrero, several ports have been closed, and no coastal watches or warnings were yet in effect as the storm stayed offshore.

All Eyes on Puerto Vallarta by Monday

The forecast track keeps Vance over open water, moving north-northwest through the weekend and approaching the Puerto Vallarta area by Monday, with no landfall expected. Its outer bands are already pushing gale-force winds and rough seas into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mexico's earlier outlook gave a peak of 195 kph sustained winds with 240 kph gusts early Saturday, about 645 kilometers south-southwest of Tecpan de Galeana in Guerrero. For residents and tourists from Acapulco to Vallarta, the weekend advice is simple: follow official updates and stay clear of the surf.