Cook Moves Ohio Governor's Race to "Lean Democrat" as Ad Backlash Engulfs Ramaswamy

Cook Moves Ohio Governor's Race to "Lean Democrat" as Ad Backlash Engulfs Ramaswamy

A closely watched race tips toward Acton

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Ohio governor's race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat" on October 23, now favoring Democrat Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Senate and governors editor Jessica Taylor wrote that the race is "slipping away" from Ramaswamy in the open-seat contest.

The ad that changed everything

The shift follows a deeply personal attack ad from the Ramaswamy campaign featuring Acton's estranged birth mother, who calls her daughter a liar on camera. The campaign confirmed late Tuesday that it produced the 60-second spot and will spend $4 million airing it statewide on television and online.

A family history dragged into the open

Acton was removed from her birth mother at age 12 over severe abuse, neglect and sexual abuse, and has said she last saw her mother at a courthouse in 1978, when the mother defended Acton's stepfather after he was indicted for raping Acton as a child. Acton's brother issued a statement condemning Ramaswamy for platforming their mother and revisiting that trauma for political gain.

Republicans split as Trump rallies behind the spot

Ohio's Republican governor, Mike DeWine, who has endorsed Ramaswamy, called the ad "deeply, deeply troubling" and urged the campaign to take it down. President Donald Trump took the opposite view in a Truth Social post, calling it a "very powerful Ad" and advising Ramaswamy to keep it up. Vice President JD Vance, campaigning in Cincinnati, also lashed out at Republicans criticizing the ad.

Polls show Acton ahead by about five points

A Cook Political Report poll conducted before the ad aired found Acton leading Ramaswamy 49 percent to 44 percent, a five-point margin, among 959 likely voters surveyed October 9 through 13. Other recent surveys point the same way: Marist put Acton up 50 percent to 43 percent, Bowling Green State University/YouGov had her ahead 50 percent to 44 percent, and polling averages give her a lead of roughly five points.

Forecasters converge on a Democratic edge

Earlier in the week, Sabato's Crystal Ball, another nonpartisan forecaster, made the same move, shifting the race from toss-up to leans Democratic. Decision Desk HQ, a partner of The Hill, now gives Acton a 62 percent chance of victory.

A crack in a Republican stronghold

Ohio voted comfortably for Trump in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic governor since Ted Strickland left office in 2011. A Democratic pickup in the governor's mansion would scramble Republican midterm calculations and mark a rare bright spot for Democrats in an increasingly red-leaning state.

Eleven days out, turnout is everything

The November 3 election is an open-seat race: DeWine is term-limited, and Libertarian Don Kissick is also on the ballot. Ramaswamy insists the campaign should be about substantive issues and accuses Acton of refusing to debate him; Acton's camp is pressing its advantage with sympathetic voters and moderates repelled by the ad. With less than two weeks to go, both sides are racing to turn ratings momentum into actual votes.