Serbia's Snap Vote: The Strongman Who Stepped Down to Face the Students

Serbia's Snap Vote: The Strongman Who Stepped Down to Face the Students

A vote that finally feels uncertain

Serbians voted on Sunday in a snap parliamentary election that feels unlike any vote in over a decade. For the first time since Aleksandar Vucic came to power in 2012, the outcome is genuinely uncertain, with a student-backed opposition list running neck and neck against his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Polling stations closed at 8 p.m. local time, with preliminary results expected about two hours later.

The president who quit to run for prime minister

Vucic engineered this showdown himself. He dissolved parliament on September 9, citing what he called major turbulence on the domestic political scene, then resigned as president on September 27 to head his party's electoral list as its candidate for prime minister. First elected president in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, he cut short his second five-year term although the law did not require him to resign. He told supporters he wanted to compete as an ordinary man, as one of the people. Minutes before stepping down, he used his constitutional powers to pardon dozens of people, including students and party loyalists, over alleged offences during the protests. Parliamentary speaker Ana Brnabic became acting president, and a presidential election must now follow by the end of December.

From a canopy collapse to a national movement

The challenger was born from tragedy. In November 2024, the newly reconstructed railway station canopy in Novi Sad, Serbia's second city, collapsed, killing 16 people. The disaster triggered nearly two years of student-led protests demanding accountability, transparency in public procurement, and an end to systemic corruption. The movement, known as Students in Blockade, announced its electoral list in May 2025 after demanding early elections. The Student List fields 250 candidates who are not students themselves but academics, professionals and public figures chosen by student plenums. Its ballot holder is Ilija Srdanovic, a Novi Sad University professor and cardiologist, who says the movement offers citizens the core values of civilised society that the previous regime took away. The platform, titled the Student Plan, runs to 11 points in three sections and deliberately avoids fixed deadlines.

Dueling rallies in Belgrade

The campaign closed with dueling rallies. About 150,000 supporters of the Student List filled central Belgrade on Thursday for the movement's final rally, while Vucic addressed a rival gathering in a sports hall across town, urging his followers to go out and defeat them decisively. On election day, the student movement's website dubbed the long voter lines across the country queues of hope. Vucic himself stood in line in Belgrade with his wife for over an hour before casting his ballot.

How the 250 seats are decided

Voters are electing all 250 members of the National Assembly in a single nationwide constituency under proportional representation. Lists generally need at least 3 percent of the vote to enter parliament, with recognised minority lists exempt. Eighteen lists were proclaimed, but the race is effectively a two-horse contest between the SNS-led coalition, running under the banner Aleksandar Vucic – United Serbia, and the Student List.

Polls point to a photo finish

Polling depicts a dead heat. An Ipsos survey published Thursday put the SNS at 47 percent and the Student List at 40 percent, while an independent poll published Tuesday by New Serbian Political Thought had the students narrowly ahead at 44.5 percent against 42.7 percent for the Progressives. A July survey by the pro-democracy group CRTA and Stanford University showed 45 percent for the students versus 36 percent for the SNS, but that predates Vucic's resignation and his campaign machine shifting into top gear. Analysts say the students could clear 40 percent, which one assessment called potentially the strongest opposition performance since the SNS took power in 2012. Domestic pollsters showing the SNS ahead are viewed by the opposition as pro-government.

A campaign shadowed by intimidation claims

The campaign has been marred by allegations of intimidation, arrests and misuse of public resources, according to civil society groups. The independent organisation CRTA reported threats, physical violence and surveillance of opposition activists alongside what it called electoral engineering by state and local authorities. The European Centre for Press and Media Freedom recorded around 160 attacks on media outlets and journalists in Serbia this year. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe described a tense, polarised climate resembling a referendum. In a last-minute row, Brnabic wrote to European Parliament President Roberta Metsola accusing members of the parliament's observation team of political bias ahead of their Thursday arrival in Belgrade.

What comes next

The stakes extend beyond the 250 seats. A ruling-party win returns Vucic to government as prime minister, preserving continuity of his 14-year rule in a new office. A Student List breakthrough would end that era and force coalition bargaining in a fragmented parliament, followed by a presidential vote within months and a reckoning over Serbia's stalled path toward the European Union.