Nike reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 results tonight after the U.S. market close (about 4:15 p.m. ET), with the earnings call at 5 p.m. ET — the first report card of year two of CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround. Analysts expect revenue of about $11.3 billion (down roughly 3% year over year) and earnings of $0.43–0.44 a share, below the $0.49 of a year ago. Nike's own guidance calls for a low-to-mid-single-digit full-year revenue decline, with gross margin expanding only slightly after seven straight quarters of year-over-year contraction.
Heading into the print, Nike shares hover near $36, down more than 40% this year and close to 13-year lows — about 78% below the 2021 peak, with a market cap of just $54–55 billion. Options markets imply an ~8% post-earnings swing. The bears are loud: Bank of America downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral on September 25 and cut its target to $30 from $47; Piper Sandler cut its target to $38 from $45; Morgan Stanley relaunched coverage with a bearish rating. The bulls push back: Jefferies expects a beat — $11.5 billion in revenue and $0.48 EPS — and keeps a Buy with a $75 target; BTIG reiterated Buy with a $55 target.
The market's top question is whether Greater China can stop bleeding. Analysts expect the region's revenue to fall another ~12.6% to about $1.3 billion — the biggest drag on the turnaround. Hill said in June he is "fully committed" to winning China back. Gross margin is the other wild card: tariff cost pressure is hard to read, and last quarter's "beat" was flattered by roughly $986 million in tariff refunds (about 52 cents a share) after the Supreme Court struck down Trump-era duties — a one-time boost that won't repeat.
The turnaround's foundation is shifting: North America wholesale grew 14% last fiscal year, though sell-through lags sell-in; running has grown double digits for five straight quarters, adding roughly $1 billion and about five points of share gains in North America and Western Europe. But the first full "Sport Offense" product season doesn't arrive until spring 2027, and management has warned revenue will likely keep declining through the first half of fiscal 2027. On personnel, new CFO David Denton joined in August, and Nike plans to resume full-year and long-term guidance at its November Investor Day. Also on tonight's watch list: the dividend Nike has raised for 24 straight years (yield ~4.4%) — and whether it's safe.