Mohammadreza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, told the semi-official Fars News Agency on October 7 that "the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it," adding that the situation would continue until "Iran's legitimate demands are met." He also said transit routes deemed "illegal" by Iran would soon be blocked. U.S. Central Command swiftly dismissed the claim as "false," setting up a war of words over who actually controls the world's most important oil chokepoint.
Naqdi said Iran would soon close the southern pathway hugging Oman's coast. He claimed these "few routes" had been created by blasting and damaging rocky passages in the waterway and were used by "small boats smuggling oil and transferring it to tankers" — challenging the narrative that Gulf oil exports are regaining pre-war levels.
Another IRGC adviser, Majid Mirahmadi, added on October 8 that only about 10 ships a day now transit the strait, against an average of 125 before the war.
U.S. Central Command issued a sharp denial. "This is a false claim," CENTCOM stated. "Iran has no navy, as American forces sank it. Furthermore, Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz, a fact proven by the thousands of ships that have passed through it freely, along with more than a billion barrels of oil, in recent months alone."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a press conference in Athens on October 7, said Iran had "lost complete control" of the strait: "The Strait of Hormuz is open. There's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began." He added that Iran's economy was in "total and complete free fall" under "crippling sanctions."
With both sides talking past each other, data has become the battlefield. Ship-tracking firm Kpler put the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region at 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30 — roughly in line with the 18 million bpd average of the 12 months before the war, with volumes topping pre-war levels on 14 days in September (a figure that includes shipments via Hormuz, the Red Sea and terminals in the Gulf of Oman).
But traffic through the strait itself has collapsed: only seven commodity vessels passed on Tuesday, the lowest since July 23, rising slightly to 10 on Wednesday — still well short of the more than 20 on Sunday and Monday. Tehran insists the rebound in seaborne flows is thanks to U.S. Navy escorts, not a return to normal commerce.
The rhetoric comes as attacks across the Gulf intensify. On October 7, a tanker was struck by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles north of Qatar, with crew casualties reported; the same day, Houthi rebels attacked two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing 3 and wounding dozens. Between September 28 and October 5, at least 12 attacks on tankers were recorded around Hormuz — the highest weekly count since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began on February 28.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Tehran's conditions for ending the war and restoring security to the Persian Gulf and the strait had been "clearly and firmly" explained, with responses to U.S. proposals to come through mediators. Iran and Oman have reportedly agreed on the geographic coordinates of safe transit routes through the strait.
Supply fears kept pushing prices up: Brent crude rose more than 2% to $102.43 a barrel on October 8. Markets are caught between two realities — Gulf crude is still flowing in large volumes, but the cost and danger of moving each barrel by sea have risen sharply.
Diplomatically, mediation between Washington and Tehran has stalled, with the U.S. demanding Iran acknowledge it will not pursue nuclear capabilities while Tehran insists its "legitimate demands" come first. In a strait where missiles and declarations fly together, the next escalation may be only one attack away.