ASML's Profit Smashes Estimates as Customers Look to Book Tools Through 2030

ASML's Profit Smashes Estimates as Customers Look to Book Tools Through 2030

A record quarter, with sales a hair light

ASML reported third-quarter 2026 total net sales of €11.66 billion, up 55% from €7.52 billion a year earlier and 25% from the second quarter. Net income reached €4.96 billion, well above the roughly €4.1 billion consensus compiled by LSEG, while sales came in slightly below the €11.72 billion analysts had forecast. Gross margin hit a record 57.5%, against 54.0% in the prior quarter, and basic earnings per share were €12.95. The company sold 113 new lithography systems and eight used ones. Net income included a €509.7 million gain from revaluing ASML's stake in Mistral AI.

The 2030 order line that moved the story

The headline disclosure was not the profit but the horizon. "In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030," CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the press release. CNBC noted that stretches far beyond the one-to-two-year order window typical of semiconductor capital equipment.

AI investment duration, not just size

"Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments," Fouquet said. On the earnings call he added that discussions with customers are "shifting, in fact, beyond 2027," with order intake for 2028 and, in some cases, strong interest in placing orders for 2029 and sometimes 2030.

Deposits jumped €5.7 billion in one quarter

The demand is already showing up on the balance sheet: the long-term portion of customer prepayments rose by €5.7 billion during the quarter to €9.3 billion, according to StockTitan's calculation. ASML did not publish a separate net bookings figure, saying only that order-book momentum continues to increase quarter on quarter.

2027 and 2028 supply will not be enough

"We now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers," Fouquet said, adding that the company is investigating ways to lift 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase already communicated. The prior plan called for a 30% step-up in low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity in 2027 and another 30% in 2028. ASML expects to ship about 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, more than 50% above 2025 levels.

China slips to roughly a fifth of the business

China's share of net system sales fell from 42% in the third quarter of 2025 to 36% in the fourth, 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second. StockTitan puts this quarter at about 23% by its own calculation: roughly €1.9 billion of machine sales to China against €2.3 billion a year earlier, while shipments outside China roughly doubled to about €6.4 billion. Management reiterated that China will account for about 20% of full-year 2026 sales including service. ASML still cannot sell EUV or certain DUV tools into mainland China.

Installed-base upgrades carry the record margin

Installed Base Management sales came in at €3.29 billion, up about 68% and above guidance. CFO Roger Dassen attributed the 57.5% gross margin largely to installed-base revenue, upgrade activity, higher volume and product mix. For 2026 as a whole, ASML expects the EUV business to grow more than 45%, non-EUV about 20%, installed-base business about 50%, and China to be about 20% of total business.

High-NA commitments from the two biggest chipmakers

Samsung and TSMC committed to using ASML's next-generation High NA EUV machines during the quarter. TSMC plans to introduce High NA into high-volume manufacturing around 2030, Samsung aims for 2028, and Intel is already running High NA systems in production. TSMC has also asked ASML to lead a consortium on bringing 12-inch reticles to the industry in the first half of the next decade. ASML confirmed the NXE:3800F scanner for 2027, lifting throughput from 230 to 260 wafers per hour.

Guidance raised for the third time

ASML guided the fourth quarter to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion in net sales with a gross margin around 57%. For the full year it lifted the floor of its 2026 outlook, to a range of €44 billion to €45 billion, with a gross margin around 56% and growth of roughly 36% over 2025. Bloomberg described it as the third upward revision this year.

Shares diverge between New York and Amsterdam

The market reaction was split. U.S.-listed shares fell about 3% in overnight trading, dragging Micron, SanDisk and Intel down 1% to 2.6%, after a narrow revenue miss. In Amsterdam, shares rose as much as 2.8% to €1,551.60 on the record profit and longer order visibility. The stock is still up roughly 61% for the year. The next test is whether the 2028 capacity expansion lands — and whether the 2029 and 2030 "interest" turns into firm orders.