Republicans Get a Hot Inflation Number Three Weeks Out From the Midterms
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, up from 0.4% in August. On an annual basis headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% from 3.4%, the fastest pace since May, when prices were running at 4.2%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 0.6% on the month and 3.6% year over year, so the annual number came in a tenth hot. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over 12 months, up from 2.4% in August. The Guardian noted that 3.7% is the highest pre-midterm reading since 1990, leaving aside the pandemic.
Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly CPI increase, the BLS said. Energy as a whole rose 5.2% on the month and 20.4% year over year; fuel oil is up 74% and gasoline 34.2% over 12 months. National gasoline averaged $4.36 a gallon in September, the fifth-highest monthly average since 1992, after briefly approaching $4.50 late in the month. Diesel topped $6 a gallon, reaching $6.28 in some areas. The driver is the war with Iran that began in late February: crude went from just over $70 a barrel to above $100 as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Groceries were the rare bright spot, edging lower on declines in meat and dairy, though food away from home still rose 3.5%.
National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told Fox Business there was "a top line number that was disappointed. But inside the top line there's a lot of good news." He argued Trump's policies are "helping to keep inflation down" while insisting that "the energy shock is really the headline story today," and pointed the finger at former President Joe Biden, saying Americans "were worse off" under his policies. A week earlier Hassett had said inflation had "decelerated sharply over the last three months."
Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% in September to $37.81 and are up 3.0% over the year, below the 3.7% inflation rate; pay has now trailed prices for months. Third-quarter prices rose 1.1%, the biggest increase for that period in three years. The American Enterprise Institute estimates the average household paid about $1,026 in extra gasoline and diesel costs through September 21, plus $342 in federal war spending — roughly $1,380 in total.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found about 78% of Americans attribute rising prices to Trump administration policies, including 57% of Republicans who support him. A Fox News poll found 55% of voters say inflation is "not at all" under control, up from a low of 45% earlier this year, and 30% of that group are Republicans. Trump's approval on inflation sits at 22%, a new low, against 36% last summer — and 29% for Biden before the 2022 midterms. A separate poll reported by The Hill found only 28% of voters approve of his handling of the economy.
Sen. Jim Justice of West Virginia said, "If you're not worried, you're living in a cave," warning that economic frustration could keep Republican voters home. Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana told NBC the biggest issue is "cost-of-living," adding that telling voters not to believe their "lying checkbooks" isn't going to work. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said, "People are paying more, and we need to do more." Majority Leader Steve Scalise called the cost of living the "No. 1 issue in America." Former Fox News host Brit Hume said rising costs are "plaguing" the GOP.
The Washington Post's review of $1.6 billion in campaign advertising found Republicans have outspent Democrats nearly $1 billion to $661 million. But Republicans air about half as many ads mentioning or showing Trump as Democrats do, and devote less than 1% of their ad spending to spots that specifically mention him. Republican groups have put $138 million into Ohio's Senate race alone. Super PACs aligned with MAGA Inc., which holds more than $400 million, have spent in 42 House districts — 30 of them defensive.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says "Republicans have crashed the economy," and the party's closing agenda centers on killing tariffs, ending the Iran war and reversing Medicaid cuts; Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has called the cost of living the top issue for all of 2026. A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll released October 13 put Democrats ahead on the generic ballot 49% to 42%. DDHQ gives Democrats a 76% chance of winning the House and 56% of flipping the Senate, while the RealClearPolitics average shows an 8.3-point Democratic lead.
The Fed hiked 25 basis points on September 16 in a 12-0 vote, its first increase in three years, taking the funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%; it next meets October 27-28. After the CPI release, Kalshi's odds of an October hike jumped to 33% from 16%, and futures briefly implied roughly 40%. Then comes Election Day on November 3 — and September's CPI is the last inflation reading voters will see before they cast ballots, with October data due after the election. Trump is countering with sweeteners: a $5,000 dividend for every adult American if Republicans hold both chambers, a push to suspend the federal gas tax, and a 90-day rollback of tariffs on foreign beef trimmings. Some Republican lawmakers worry the checks would stoke both inflation and the deficit.