Two Texas Republicans Are Priced to Lose as Prediction Markets Split With the Polls

Two Texas Republicans Are Priced to Lose as Prediction Markets Split With the Polls

Two Nominees the Exchanges Call Losers

The Houston Chronicle reported on Oct. 16 that the two biggest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, both price two Texas Republican nominees as losers: Attorney General Ken Paxton, running for the U.S. Senate against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, and Railroad Commission candidate Bo French, running against Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal. With less than three weeks to Election Day on Nov. 3, those are the only Texas statewide races where the major exchanges put the Republican behind.

Talarico Holds a Six-Point Cushion

In the Chronicle's afternoon snapshot, Kalshi had Talarico at 61 percent to Paxton's 39 percent and Polymarket at 62 to 40, with more than $30.4 million traded on the race. Earlier this month he peaked at 66 percent on Kalshi and 68 percent on Polymarket before easing. Decision Desk HQ gives him a 56 percent chance to flip the seat, with a 2.5-point lead in its polling average.

The Railroad Commission Is Far Tighter

There the Chronicle found Kalshi at 56 to 44 for Rosenthal and Polymarket at 50 to 44. A UT/Texas Politics Project survey (861 likely voters, Sept. 25-Oct. 5, MOE 3.34 points) put Rosenthal at 47 percent to French's 46 percent; the same poll showed Democrats leading or within one point in other statewide contests.

Abbott and Patrick Are Still Favored

Not everything tilts blue. The Chronicle reported Kalshi pricing Gov. Greg Abbott at 75 to 25 and Polymarket at 76 to 25 — "one of the biggest gaps between what polls are showing and the public's confidence." Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick still led Democrat Vikki Goodwin 72 to 28 on Kalshi. Newsweek noted in September that Abbott had been at 87 percent a month earlier and 93 percent on Jan. 1. Traders, in short, expect Republicans to lose the Senate seat and the Railroad Commission post, but to keep the governor's mansion and the lieutenant governor's office.

The Exchanges Say Prices Are Not Forecasts

Kalshi contracts trade between 1 and 99 cents and settle at $1 if the outcome is confirmed and zero if not, so the price is the implied probability. Reports repeatedly caution that these percentages are market prices, not newsroom forecasts and not results. State election officials, meanwhile, are running the calendar as written: early voting runs Oct. 19 to Oct. 30, mail-ballot applications must arrive by Oct. 23, and polls open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Nov. 3.

Both Campaigns Say Wait for the Count

Asked about the leaked recordings, Paxton's campaign dismissed them as "a story that doesn't exist" while saying he had called, texted and offered to talk with Sen. John Cornyn. Talarico's spokesman denied rumors about his absence, saying he had the flu and would return to the trail. President Trump mocked Talarico as "missing in action" and demanded he debate; Talarico shot back that Paxton had gone 85 days without answering a debate request.

Why the Gap Is So Wide

The Chronicle attributes the split to doubts about polling itself: a decade of misses, 2016 above all, plus a Pew Research Center note flagging synthetic AI polling, mail-ballot changes and data centers as a wedge issue. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll found an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats — 72 percent of Democrats extremely or very enthusiastic about the election against 62 percent of Republicans, with 53 percent of Democrats extremely enthusiastic versus 37 percent of Republicans.

Leaked Audio and a Flu Absence

At least five recordings from a September fundraiser have surfaced. In one obtained by CNN, Paxton said Cornyn is "clearly not helping" and "wants me to lose"; others have him saying he has lost "control" of his campaign, that decisions come "from D.C.," and that Republicans may have to "suck it up" and cut Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security. Rolling Stone published a clip on Oct. 14 in which Paxton said Abbott is "struggling." Talarico, meanwhile, missed roughly nine days of campaigning with the flu before reappearing at the Austin City Limits festival on Oct. 9.

$220 Million Poured Into Midterm Markets

The New York Post reported on Oct. 14, citing Reuters and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, that more than $220 million has been wagered on the midterms on Kalshi and Polymarket — more than double the $92 million traded across the entire 2024 congressional cycle. The analysis covered more than 21,000 congressional markets this cycle versus 463 two years ago. Money is also concentrated: on Polymarket's international platform, the top 1 percent of wallets accounted for 70 percent of congressional trading volume.

19 Million Registered, Voting Opens Oct. 19

The Tribune reported on Oct. 16 that Texas has 19 million registered voters, up 2 percent since the March primary; 2024 turnout was 57 percent against 64 percent nationally. More than 40,000 Texans had already voted by mail. Action Network put Talarico's fundraising near $72 million against under $17 million for Paxton, who won the May 26 GOP runoff 63.8 to 36.2. The Chronicle also noted that a Talarico win would make Paxton the first Republican in nearly four decades to lose a Texas Senate race.

Nov. 3 Is the Only Real Resolution

Prices will keep moving before the polls close; polling error, actual early-vote turnout and the final two weeks of advertising can all shift them. The real test lands on Nov. 3. If Talarico and Rosenthal win, prediction markets get a loud victory lap. If the polls have been wrong for a third straight cycle, the gap between what traders paid and what voters did will be asked about far more sharply.