Turkey's escape route back into America's F-35 fighter program looked almost open — and then it slammed shut. According to multiple reports, Ankara was close to transferring its Russian-made S-400 air defense system to the United Arab Emirates, a move that would have removed the biggest legal obstacle to its return. But the deal stalled at the last moment, and Turkish media allege Israel pressured the UAE to kill it.
The standoff began in 2017, when Turkey spent $2.5 billion on the S-400. Washington responded with a triple blow: expelling Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019 (Turkey was one of nine founding investor nations, putting in up to $1.5 billion and slated to receive 40 to 100 jets), then imposing Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions in 2020.
The S-400 is now the key locking three doors at once: lifting U.S. sanctions, returning to the F-35 program, and restoring U.S.-Turkish defense-industrial cooperation. Washington's position is unambiguous: no F-35s while Turkey holds the S-400. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack has said Turkey must stop operating and give up the system first.
At the NATO summit in Ankara this July, Trump promised Erdoğan he would lift the sanctions and said an F-35 sale was "certainly something we will consider" — "it's a great plane, the best plane by far." But afterward, the State Department wrote to Congress to cool expectations: Turkey had not met the statutory conditions, and the law still bars any transfer.
Erdoğan remained upbeat after returning from the UN General Assembly on September 24: "Trump expressed a positive willingness regarding Turkey's return to the F-35 program. We expect this willingness to now translate into concrete steps. I am confident we will achieve results."
Ankara's escape plan was to physically move the S-400 off Turkish soil — to the UAE. The Wall Street Journal reported the negotiations in July, citing U.S. and regional officials; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on September 28 that Moscow could approve transferring the system to a "friendly third country." Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on September 19 that Ankara was considering "creative ideas" to resolve the dispute.
Israel would have none of it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on CNN in July that giving Turkey F-35s would upset the regional balance of power, saying he had raised his objections with Trump several times. Turkish Haber7 columnist Mehmet Acet, citing an unnamed source, reported that Israel pressed the UAE leadership directly not to accept the S-400 — an allegation not independently confirmed, but the UAE did get cold feet and the deal bogged down. Ankara is said to be drafting a new formula to bypass the Israeli objection, possibly with U.S. backing.
The backdrop is the Iran war. Trump has repeatedly praised Turkey's "loyalty" during the conflict; the UAE, hit by Iranian missiles and drones during this year's regional fighting, has a genuine appetite for air defenses — the S-400 would not be useless to it. Reuters also reported that the State Department has approved selling 48 F-35s to Saudi Arabia, breaking the long-standing practice of selling fifth-generation jets in the region only to Israel.
Analysts say the U.S. has two motives for selling F-35s in the Middle East: money, and deterring Iran. The biggest obstacle remains Israel, which views a Turkish F-35 acquisition as a direct threat to its air superiority — a red line it will not bend on.
What comes next depends on Ankara's rumored "new formula" — and on how much Trump's July promise is actually worth. In the Middle East, the F-35 was never just an arms deal; it's the price of picking a side.