Cox Automotive's forecast from a week ago almost came true — but Ford held on at the finish. Ford reported on October 2 that it sold 509,764 vehicles in the U.S. in the third quarter, down 6.6% from a year earlier but slightly better than Cox's projected 504,172. Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai + Genesis + Kia) confirmed Q3 sales of 506,200 units the same day, up 5.4%. The gap: just 3,564 vehicles. Ford keeps third place in America; Hyundai Group settles for fourth.
Cox had predicted 511,421 for Hyundai Group and 504,172 for Ford — which would have been the first time the Korean group outsold Ford in a quarter. Reality undershot both forecasts: Ford sold about 5,600 more than expected, Hyundai Group about 5,200 fewer. General Motors held first at roughly 670,000 units, Toyota second at about 633,000.
Ford blamed the decline on lineup changes — it phased out the Escape and Lincoln Corsair crossovers. Trucks held up: sales of Ford trucks, including the flagship F-Series, rose 0.5% to 315,112 units, while the affordable Maverick pickup, offered with a hybrid powertrain, jumped more than 20% to 41,970 units.
Ford executives acknowledged the trend to Reuters on Friday: "We are definitely seeing more demand on the hybrid powertrain, including on the F-150." The problem is that Detroit's hybrid lineups are far thinner than their Asian rivals'. A fire at a key parts supplier last year also disrupted supplies of Ford's popular pickups, with effects lingering.
Hyundai Group's growth came almost entirely from hybrids. Hybrid sales surged 53.4% year over year to 138,112 units, a quarterly record, while pure-electric sales plunged 51% to just 22,311. Combined electrified sales reached 160,423, up 18.4%.
By brand: Hyundai sold 269,541 units including 22,645 Genesis vehicles, up 3.5%; Kia sold 236,659, up 7.8%. Top sellers were the Hyundai Tucson (64,075) and Kia Sportage (50,839). In September alone, Hyundai posted its best September ever at 85,502 units, up 13.4%, while Kia grew 17.6%.
The backdrop is fuel prices. Regular gasoline averaged $4.43 a gallon in September, versus $3.20 a year earlier, according to AAA. Cox economist Charlie Chesbrough noted that consumers keep shifting toward hybrids and passenger cars — exactly where Asian manufacturers are strongest. Asian brands have now captured more than half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for the second consecutive quarter, approaching record share, while the Detroit Three's combined share slid to a record low of 36%.
Ford also griped about cost structure: tariffs, exchange rates, labor costs and supply chains make it far more advantageous to build vehicles in South Korea than in the U.S. Affordability keeps deteriorating too — the average new-vehicle transaction price rose 1.9% to $50,089 in August, and monthly payments remain punishing despite lower loan rates.
Chesbrough expects the share shift to continue for the rest of the year. Toyota, the hybrid leader, is closing in on GM and could take the top spot by year-end, according to Cox.
Ford's response runs on two tracks: filling its hybrid product gap, and opening a second front — roughly $2 billion to convert its Kentucky battery operations into energy-storage manufacturing under the Ford Energy banner, plus a five-year deal for EDF Power Solutions to procure up to 20 GWh of storage systems starting in 2028. Cox, meanwhile, raised its full-year 2026 U.S. sales forecast by about 2% to 16.1 million: the market isn't short of buyers, just short of the right products.