Former Kansas Republican Governor Mike Hayden endorsed Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton on October 2 in an op-ed for The Wichita Eagle, becoming the second former GOP governor to back the Democrat against incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall.
Two former GOP governors, the same defection
"He has spent his time in the Senate putting party and politics over the people of Kansas," Hayden wrote. "It's time for a change. Adam's focus on finding common ground reflects the kind of approach I believe is needed in Washington." Hayden served as Kansas governor decades ago and had long kept a low profile.
Former Governor Bill Graves, who endorsed Hamilton in early September, was even blunter in a video shared on X: "For the last six years, Senator Roger Marshall has turned his back on Kansas." In a PBS interview, Graves — a former Kansas secretary of state — said he was "very disappointed" that one of Marshall's first Senate votes was to reject the election results from Arizona and Pennsylvania, adding that Marshall has since been "pretty much a yes-vote for anything the administration wants."
Pastor vs. obstetrician in an unusually tight race
Hamilton is the senior pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. A fifth-generation Kansan, he defeated 10 other Democrats in the August primary while running an unapologetically middle-of-the-road campaign: his church includes Republicans, Democrats, and independents who "all gather together and serve together."
Marshall, an obstetrician seeking a second term and a close ally of President Donald Trump, has sharpened his attacks as the Democrat closes the gap. "Make no mistake: Adam Hamilton is a radical Democrat, and his sermons are identical to the Democratic Party platform," Marshall wrote on X on Monday.
But the polls suggest a real fight. An Emerson College poll put Hamilton 2 points ahead of Marshall among 750 likely voters (margin of error ±3.6%), with the Democrat winning independents 43% to 27%. "This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton's appeal to independent voters," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. Hamilton also outraised Marshall $3.7 million to $610,000 in the most recent quarter, though Marshall entered the general election with more cash on hand.
A crack inside the GOP — and a midterm bellwether
Kansas backed Trump in the past three presidential elections, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat there since George McGill in 1932. Two former governors defecting, combined with independents breaking for Hamilton, suggests Marshall's reliably pro-administration record is costing him moderate Kansans.
The handicappers have taken notice: Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report both moved the race from "safe" or "solid" Republican to "likely Republican," though each still treats a Democratic victory as a long shot. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand have embraced Hamilton's candidacy.
With one month to go before the November 3 general election, the open question is whether Marshall's escalating attacks can dent the pastor's "common ground" brand — or whether Kansas moderates will complete a defection that would have been unthinkable a cycle ago.