A tanker was struck by multiple projectiles on October 7 in waters north of Qatar, with crew casualties reported. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued Warning 158-26 on the incident and advised vessels to transit the area with caution. It is the first reported single-ship attack in the Gulf tanker campaign since the U.S.-Iran war began with confirmed crew casualties.
UKMTO said the incident occurred around 1900 UTC on Wednesday, October 7, approximately 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar. A tanker reported being struck by multiple projectiles, and casualties were subsequently reported.
UKMTO, the British military's commercial-shipping monitoring agency for the region, did not say where the projectiles came from and did not identify the vessel's name, flag, or the number of casualties. Reuters and The Wall Street Journal both cited the agency's report.
The attack extends a recent escalation. Maritime security trackers recorded at least 12 attacks, attempted attacks, drone surveillance incidents and radio harassment against tankers around the Strait of Hormuz between September 28 and October 5 — the highest weekly count since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28.
Ironically, the surge arrived just as Gulf producers were pushing exports higher. Saudi Arabia and others are moving more crude out, and more ships mean more targets. "The surge in attacks came just as Gulf producers were pushing to export more," Reuters noted.
Supply fears lifted prices immediately. On Thursday morning, December Brent futures rose 2.15% to $102.35 a barrel and November WTI futures gained 1.80% to $89.87. Both benchmarks had settled lower on Wednesday at $100.20 and $88.28 respectively.
Gulf stock markets fell in early Thursday trade: Saudi Arabia's benchmark TASI index dropped 0.9%, with the kingdom's biggest lender, Saudi National Bank, down 2.6%; Abu Dhabi and Dubai indexes each lost 0.9%, and the Qatari index fell 0.6%.
Shipping data shows the damage too: vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to their lowest in more than two months. Before the war, about 125 large commercial vessels passed through the strait each day, carrying roughly a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
The violence spread beyond the sea. The Wall Street Journal reported that on the same Wednesday, Houthi rebels attacked two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing 3 people and wounding dozens. Saudi authorities have warned the public that filming and sharing images of drone and missile attacks could bring legal charges.
The combination of the tanker strike and the airport attacks sharply raised security risks across the Gulf in a single day, with Riyadh, Washington and European capitals assessing the potential for further supply-chain disruption.
In the near term, shipowners and insurers are expected to raise risk premiums for Gulf routes further, and more vessels may reroute. Data already shows Gulf producers exporting more crude via the coast of Oman and the Red Sea — those routes have climbed to 6.7 million barrels a day, more than double pre-war levels, largely offsetting the Hormuz shortfall.
But rerouting relieves, it doesn't cure. As long as the attacks continue, roughly a fifth of the world's crude supply stays within missile range.