Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have hit a new record. Reuters reported on October 7, citing data from three maritime security sources, that at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers occurred around the strait in the week of September 28 to October 5 — the highest single-week count since the U.S. war with Iran began on February 28.
Attacks, attempted attacks and harassment have persisted: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have flown drones over tankers, conducted surveillance and hailed vessels on VHF radio. The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) wrote in a Sunday note: "These actions continue to demonstrate Iran's intent to assert presence along key transit lanes and maintain pressure on transiting vessels."
The UN shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), counted nine vessel incidents in the same week under its slower verification process — still far above the previous peak of eight in the week of July 13.
The surge showed up immediately in traffic data. Kpler figures show only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Tuesday, the lowest since July 23. Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from the prior week's wartime high to at least 10.1 million barrels a day — back to the September average and just 74% of the pre-war level.
LSEG data told the same story: eight vessels crossed on Tuesday, evenly split between entries and exits, down from more than 20 a day on Sunday and Monday. Gulf producers are routing around the problem, though: exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to 6.7 million barrels a day, more than twice pre-war levels, roughly offsetting the Hormuz shortfall and keeping total Middle East crude exports at pre-war levels.
Supply fears lifted prices. On Thursday, Brent crude rose 1.33% to $101.53 a barrel and U.S. WTI gained 1.26% to $89.39. The International Energy Agency has agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks and prioritize diesel supplies — part of a plan launched in March as governments tackle record fuel prices.
The latest attack came on Wednesday: the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said a tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, causing casualties. India's foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday that the Panama-flagged tanker On Peace was hit by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait, injuring 12 crew members.
Notably, the worst week for attacks coincided with a Gulf export push — for about half of September, Gulf crude exports topped pre-war levels. "In the past, such attacks have resulted in a reduction in shipments from the Persian Gulf. This time around, producers appear to be willing to take the risk of their vessels being damaged, as there is no alternative way to get their oil to international markets," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.
Before the war, the strait carried shipments equal to about 20% of global oil and fuel. As the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its eighth month, the world's oil valve is getting more dangerous by the week. What to watch: whether attacks escalate from harassment to an attempted blockade, and how far IEA stock releases can offset disruption risk. For ordinary drivers, the answer is already posted on the gas station sign.